Scenario planning for nonprofits + Podcastathon with Carol Hamilton
3/17/2025
““Scenario planning is a strategic method used to imagine and prepare for a range of possible futures. We can never know what is coming or what is in the future, but sometimes things are a little bit more predictable than right now. Scenario planning uses our imagination to play out what might happen as we consider a number of uncertainties.””
In this solo episode of Nonprofit Mission Impact, Carol Hamilton delves into scenario planning and its value for nonprofits navigating an era of heightened uncertainty. She emphasizes
how scenario planning moves organizations from a state of overwhelm to proactive action,
outlines a step-by-step approach and
shares a recent client story to illustrate its usefulness.
Podcastathon 2025: She also highlights The Arc of Montgomery County and its important role in supporting people with developmental disabilities through local programming and national advocacy as part of Podcastathon 2025.
Episode highlights:
[00:00:00] Why scenario planning now
Carol Hamilton opens Episode 119 of Mission Impact.
Sets the stage by acknowledging the widespread uncertainty facing nonprofits, driven by external factors such as political unrest and changing funding landscapes.
Announces her participation in Podcastathon, an event showcasing nonprofit causes.
[00:01:00] Defining Scenario Planning
Explains scenario planning as a strategic method to imagine and prepare for multiple potential futures.
Notes that it helps organizations move from anxiety into constructive planning.
[00:02:10] Why Scenario Planning Matters
Addresses how scenario planning fosters proactivity instead of reactivity.
Acknowledges the overwhelming nature of current events, emphasizing the method’s capacity to create a path forward.
[00:04:30] Steps to Implement Scenario Planning
Environmental Scan – Identify political, economic, cultural, technological, and environmental drivers.
Select Key Factors – Narrow down to two major uncertainties for the greatest mission impact.
Map the Quadrants – Plot the two critical factors on a 2x2 matrix, creating four distinct scenarios.
Paint the Picture – Name each scenario, describe potential outcomes, and consider organizational responses.
Identify Signals – Determine which cues indicate a given scenario is emerging.
[00:08:06] Example from a Recent Client
Describes a nonprofit four named scenarios: “Broke but Protected,” “Broke but Not Protected,” “Worst Case: Climate of Chaos,” and “Status Quo.”
Highlights how similar strategies emerged across different scenarios, helping the group clarify tangible action steps.
Underscores the power of focusing on what an organization can control, even amid uncertainty.
[00:10:21] Podcastathon feature: The Arc of Montgomery County
As part of the Podcastathon initiative, Carol spotlights The Arc of Montgomery County’s mission to serve individuals with developmental disabilities.
Shares a personal connection through her brother’s involvement with The Arc’s programs.
Encourages listeners to support The Arc on local and national levels, noting the ongoing importance of advocacy.
Important Links and Resources:
Podcastathon
The Arc of Montgomery County
The Arc of Maryland
The Arc of the United States
Related Episodes:
Episode 90: Five steps to successful nonprofit strategic planning
Episode 109: Beyond the retreat: Comprehensive nonprofit strategic planning
Episode 110: Who needs to be involved in nonprofit strategic planning?
Be in Touch:
✉️ Subscribe to Carol’s newsletter at Grace Social Sector Consulting
💻 Give us feedback on the show
📚Find the books referred to on Mission: Impact
👥 Like what you heard? Please share the podcast with a colleague or friend
🌟 Help more people learn about Mission: Impact by leaving a rating & review.
😀 Connect with Carol Hamilton ➡️ LinkedIn
-
Carol Hamilton: Welcome to episode 119 of Mission Impact. Welcome to episode one 19 of Mission Impact. Today I am going solo and we'll be talking about scenario planning for nonprofits. We are all facing a level of uncertainty that we're just not used to. Now, this in the US is being caused by a hostile takeover of our government and the unchecked power of the broligarchy tech billionaires who've taken over as our unelected president.
To figure out what might be useful to move forward. Scenario planning is a particularly helpful tool for strategic planning at a time like this. It is neither new, but it is timely and. I'm also participating in a worldwide event this week that is happening this week. podcastathon. I'm very happy to participate in this third edition of the podcastathon.
And for one week, more than 2000 podcasts around the world, we'll highlight a nonprofit of their choice. And today I have the pleasure of sharing about the arc in Montgomery County and the national movement that they're part of. More about that later in the episode. Mission Impact is the podcast for nonprofit leaders who want to build a better world without becoming a martyr to the cause.
I'm Carol Hamilton, your podcast host and nonprofit equity center strategic planning and evaluation design consultant. On this podcast, we explore how to make your organization more effective and innovative. We dig into how to build organizational cultures where your work in the world is aligned with how you work together as staff, board members and volunteers, and all of this for the purpose of creating greater mission impact today, as I said, I'm going to talk about scenario planning, and I'll start by defining it.
I will talk about why it's useful, particularly right now, explain how to engage in a scenario planning process and give you an example of a recent client where we use this in some of their strategic planning and some of their results. So first, what is scenario planning? Scenario planning is a strategic method used to imagine and prepare for a range of possible futures.
We can never know what is coming or what is in the future, but sometimes things are a little bit more predictable than right now. Scenario planning uses our imagination to play out what might happen as we consider a number of uncertainties. So why is it helpful? If you're anything like me, it's very easy to imagine the worst case scenario.
But with this process, you go beyond the worst one and the worst case, and you imagine different angles of positive and negative at how they intersect. And by imagining these possible futures, we're able to game out possible action plans and also identify what we might need to pay attention to, to know whether this is coming to fruition.
And by engaging in these thought exercises, we create some muscle memory. If and when those things play out and pan out, it is about imagining different plausible futures and what we might do about them. So while it is in the realm of imagination, it also prepares us for action, and thus take a proactive versus reactive stance as we face the future.
So, as we said, scenario planning is a strategic scenario. Planning is a strategic method used to imagine and prepare for a range of potential futures. And it also is important because it helps us do that preparation instead of just being paralyzed in fear and anxiety brought on by uncertainty. So it's not about trying to figure out which is the most likely future.
Instead, it is designed to help you anticipate and pre prepare for that range of options. And with the UN level of uncertainty that we're dealing with right now, it's easy to get caught up in paralysis. That leads us to spinning and doom scrolling instead of action.
So we've defined what scenario planning is and addressed why it's important, particularly right now. So let's dive into how you go about doing it. So first you start with an environmental scan. You identify the many trends, drivers and uncertainties in the political, economic, cultural, technological, and environmental arenas.
Some examples might be attacks on our government and constitutional systems, funding freezes, polarization, socially and politically, the emergence of ai, climate change. This exercise often produces many competing factors, and honestly, it can be a bit overwhelming to consider all the major things happening in society at a wider scale that we don't have much control over yet have major impact on our lives.
Yet to deal honestly with possible futures, we need to surface these items. And the next step is to choose a subset of factors that you think will have the biggest impact on your work. So often when I'm working with groups, I'll have this, I'll have this often when I'm working with groups. I'll have folks vote on their top three to five factors that they think will have the most impact on the mission of the group.
And once the top two emerge, you're ready for the next step. You take the top two and plot them on a two by two matrix. For example, if one is a tax on constitutional democratic government, you plot the extreme of this on one end and the opposite on the other. So constitutional, democratic. Government is undermined on one end, constitutional democratic government is strengthened on the other.
That would be the two ends of the polls. And then you take a second factor, say funding freezes and funding growth, or say funding is stable as a more real, realistic, positive option on, on that poll. And then you map out four scenarios based on those four quadrants. One that has two positives, two versions of one negative one, one positive, and one two negatives.
So in this example, a constitutional democratic government is strengthened and funding grows. The constitutional democratic government is strengthened and funding shrinks. Constitutional, democratic government is undermined and funding grows. And then finally, the Constitutional, democratic government is undermined and funding shrinks. So then to bring these scenarios to life, it is helpful to give each one a name and really paint a picture. What is the story of this possible future? What will happen? What will it feel like and how will it impact your work?
What are the outcomes that you can anticipate in this scenario for your mission and for your work? And once you have a title, a story, and a picture for each scenario, you then need to assess how, what might you do in response? What actions might you take to address what's happening? What resources do you have to respond?
What capabilities do you have to put into practice? What skills or other resources might you need to build to be ready for this eventuality? You've painted a vivid picture of each scenario. You've identified what you could do in response, and then spent a little time identifying what signals would be useful to pay attention to, to know that this scenario may be coming to pass.
So we've defined scenario planning, talked about why it's useful, particularly right now, and explained how to engage in the process. And now I'll give you an example of a recent client where we use this as part of their strategic planning and some of the outcomes. So as part of their strategic planning retreat, we walked the board and staff through this exact exercise that I just described.
They described four scenarios and they titled them broke, but not protected, broke, but protected. Worst case scenario, climate of chaos, and status quo. And what emerged Interestingly, through the conversations there were common patterns, especially in what the group could do in response to each of the four scenarios they imagined.
So what could they do differently from what they were doing now was actually similar across each of the scenarios, even across those differences. In our next day of deliberations, as we, as they mapped out their future goals, we encouraged them to consider those scenarios, but also consider what was within their control.
And by using these two lenses, they were able to prioritize work that would move their mission forward regardless of what the future held. The group came into strategic planning, feeling overwhelmed by the big events that were happening in the news every day, and the level of uncertainty. They just didn't know where to focus, and the scenario planning process acknowledges those big things and uncertainty, and yet helped the group identify what steps they could take, and by then also focusing on what was in their sphere of control.
They were able to identify positive actions to take and move out of this overwhelm.
I encourage you to consider weaving scenario planning into your next strategic discussions with your board and staff. You can complete a cycle of the process that I described earlier in about two hours, and it's really not just a thought exercise. It will help you move out of overwhelm and into positive action for your mission and for your cause.
As I mentioned earlier in the episode, I'm part of a group of over 2000 podcasters participating in a podcastathon this week. And for this week, podcasters around the world are highlighting a nonprofit of their choice. Nonprofits support so many aspects of our lives, yet the sector can be somewhat invisible to many.
Yeah, most people could probably name a few well-known organizations, including, let's say, Goodwill, the YMCA, Harvard University, and the Red Cross. Yet nonprofit organizations enrich our lives in many ways. And in fact, in the US there are 1.5 million nonprofits in the US and about 10 million around the world.
The US actually has 15% of the world's nonprofits, and in the US economy, nonprofits represent almost 6% of the economy. The nonprofit that I've chosen to highlight for my podcast Sathan episode is the Arc of Montgomery County. As I've mentioned before, before on my show, my older brother is profoundly deaf, autistic, and developmentally disabled.
His disability stemmed from an illness that he got when he was just seven months old. My brother has been sort of supported by the ARC since he was 21 years old and moved into his first group home. The ARC also supports my brother during the day. Now he's all, he's now retirement age and, and he volunteers with a group at a local farm and goes swimming regularly, which is really his favorite thing.
And at the local level, the arc of Montgomery County directly supports people with disabilities of all ages, from providing inclusive childcare to respite care for families, caring for their loved ones today, programs for adults, as well as residential services so that people like my brother can live more independently and with dignity then they might otherwise.
The ARC is also part of a national network of local and state organizations supporting people with developmental disabilities. Its mission is to connect people of all ages and abilities with their communities to build inclusive and fulfilling lives. And at the state and national level, the arc of Maryland and the arc of the US advocate for policies that protect the human rights of people with intellectual and developmental disabilities.
As well as for policies that better support people with disabilities from protecting Medicaid to ensuring that enforcement of the Americans with Disabilities Act, and with so many threats to vital services that are happening currently, this advocacy is more critical than ever. Check out these organizations at the arc montgomery county.org, the Arc md.org, and nationally the arc.org.
And if you feel moved, I encourage you to make a donation for this important work. And that wraps up this special episode as part of the podcast Theon with the main goal of the main goal of the podcast, Theon, is to increase awareness for nonprofit organizations across the globe. Thank you for listening to this episode.
I really appreciate the time you spend with me and my guests. You can find the show notes, the full transcript of the, of what I've shared here today, as well as any links and resources mentioned during the show, in the show notes and mission impact podcast.com. I wanna thank Isabelle Strauss-Riggs for her support in editing and production, as well as Charde Carbonell of a hundred ninjas for her production support.
If you enjoyed today's episode, I really would appreciate it if you would share it with a colleague or a friend. We appreciate you getting, helping us get the word out, and until next time, thank you for everything you do to contribute and make an impact.
LISTEN + SUBSCRIBE
APPLE PODCASTS ● SPOTIFY